My efforts at political prediction were dire last year, but that’s not going to stop me, here goes for 2016:

  1. There will be no leadership elections in any of the main parties.
  2. The referendum on membership of the EU will be held in the Summer.
  3. The referendum result will be decisively in favour of remaining.
  4. The vote in favour of remaining will be above 57%. Sufficient to be decisive for a generation.
  5. There will be a significant reshuffle after the EU referendum. A number of big names will depart. (I’d guess Iain Duncan Smith and Philip Hammond at least).
  6. Boris Johnson will be brought into the cabinet as Secretary of State for BIS.
  7. The SNP will win another majority in Scotland. It won’t be much bigger than their existing majority because the electoral system makes it quite hard.
  8. Labour will lose its majority in the Welsh Assembly but will retain a chokehold on the Government there as it re-enters a coalition with Plaid Cymru.
  9. UKIP will gain ground in the local election but only because they start from a low base in 2012. The party will not win any by-elections.
  10. The London Mayoral election will be thoroughly depressing! Sadiq Khan will win.
  11. Hilary Clinton will be elected President of the United States.
  12. Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee.
  13. Angela Merkel will announce that she will not run for another term as Chancellor or Germany.
  14. There will be no Euro crisis, just slow but steady repair work.
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