My efforts at political prediction were dire last year, but that’s not going to stop me, here goes for 2016:
- There will be no leadership elections in any of the main parties.
- The referendum on membership of the EU will be held in the Summer.
- The referendum result will be decisively in favour of remaining.
- The vote in favour of remaining will be above 57%. Sufficient to be decisive for a generation.
- There will be a significant reshuffle after the EU referendum. A number of big names will depart. (I’d guess Iain Duncan Smith and Philip Hammond at least).
- Boris Johnson will be brought into the cabinet as Secretary of State for BIS.
- The SNP will win another majority in Scotland. It won’t be much bigger than their existing majority because the electoral system makes it quite hard.
- Labour will lose its majority in the Welsh Assembly but will retain a chokehold on the Government there as it re-enters a coalition with Plaid Cymru.
- UKIP will gain ground in the local election but only because they start from a low base in 2012. The party will not win any by-elections.
- The London Mayoral election will be thoroughly depressing! Sadiq Khan will win.
- Hilary Clinton will be elected President of the United States.
- Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee.
- Angela Merkel will announce that she will not run for another term as Chancellor or Germany.
- There will be no Euro crisis, just slow but steady repair work.